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Taiwan Fructose Co., Ltd. (4207.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food ConfectionersSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$90.87 - $321.09$300.89
Multi-Stage$54.01 - $59.15$56.53
Blended Fair Value$178.71
Current Price$19.00
Upside840.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS8.47%0.00%0.380.310.330.530.300.250.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--21.71%-5.06%-38.46%74.08%21.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.26%1.80%2.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)323.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)198.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)125.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)64.7540.4724.28
Cash Retained (M)125.19125.19125.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-64.75-40.47-24.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)60.4584.73100.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)198.68198.68198.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.430.51
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.430.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.301.431.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate4.52%5.52%6.52%
Fair Value$90.87$300.89$321.09
Upside / Downside378.24%1,483.61%1,589.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)323.73341.60360.45380.35401.34423.49436.19
Payout Ratio61.33%67.06%72.80%78.53%84.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)198.54229.08262.40298.69338.19381.14403.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate4.52%5.52%6.52%
Year 1 PV (M)214.03216.08218.13
Year 2 PV (M)229.05233.45237.90
Year 3 PV (M)243.60250.65257.85
Year 4 PV (M)257.69267.69277.98
Year 5 PV (M)271.33284.56298.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,515.769,979.7710,461.71
Equity Value (M)10,731.4511,232.2111,751.87
Shares Outstanding (M)198.68198.68198.68
Fair Value$54.01$56.53$59.15
Upside / Downside184.28%197.55%211.32%

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