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Definitive Analysis

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Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. (4063.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44,003.88 - $51,844.02$48,585.44
Multi-Stage$111,815.96 - $122,771.83$117,191.34
Blended Fair Value$82,888.39
Current Price$4,772.00
Upside1,636.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.56%17.00%103.34106.6398.6260.8246.1544.1237.6826.9124.7322.57
YoY Growth---3.09%8.13%62.15%31.79%4.59%17.09%40.06%8.81%9.54%5.04%
Dividend Yield--2.17%1.71%2.07%1.99%1.24%1.75%1.83%1.36%1.21%1.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)516,429.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)103,800.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)412,629.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)103,285.8064,553.6338,732.18
Cash Retained (M)412,629.00412,629.00412,629.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-103,285.80-64,553.63-38,732.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)309,343.20348,075.38373,896.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,981.031,981.031,981.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share156.15175.70188.74
LTM Dividend per Share52.4052.4052.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share156.15175.70188.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend208.55228.10241.13
WACC / Discount Rate-21.57%-21.57%-21.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$44,003.88$48,585.44$51,844.02
Upside / Downside822.13%918.14%986.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)516,429.00549,996.89585,746.68623,820.22664,368.53707,552.49728,779.06
Payout Ratio20.10%34.08%48.06%62.04%76.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)103,800.00187,437.04281,508.34387,016.99505,052.38636,797.24674,120.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-21.57%-21.57%-21.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)236,747.22238,991.27241,235.32
Year 2 PV (M)449,107.41457,661.64466,296.58
Year 3 PV (M)779,863.26802,250.33825,061.79
Year 4 PV (M)1,285,447.481,334,882.161,385,729.16
Year 5 PV (M)2,047,144.792,146,022.652,248,684.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)216,713,022.12227,180,342.12238,048,271.10
Equity Value (M)221,511,332.28232,160,150.18243,215,278.74
Shares Outstanding (M)1,981.031,981.031,981.03
Fair Value$111,815.96$117,191.34$122,771.83
Upside / Downside2,243.17%2,355.81%2,472.75%

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