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Definitive Analysis

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HPSP Co., Ltd. (403870.KQ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42,011.90 - $201,803.84$91,050.74
Multi-Stage$23,049.27 - $25,179.65$24,095.11
Blended Fair Value$57,572.92
Current Price$33,750.00
Upside70.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS143.12%0.00%91.6822.210.00244.9892.921.0883.670.000.000.00
YoY Growth--312.86%0.00%-100.00%163.66%8,508.32%-98.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.35%0.04%0.00%2.27%0.86%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)82,868.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)48,219.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)34,649.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16,573.6910,358.566,215.13
Cash Retained (M)34,649.2434,649.2434,649.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-16,573.69-10,358.56-6,215.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)18,075.5524,290.6928,434.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)81.6781.6781.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share221.34297.44348.18
LTM Dividend per Share590.45590.45590.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share221.34297.44348.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend811.78887.89938.62
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$42,011.90$91,050.74$201,803.84
Upside / Downside24.48%169.78%497.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)82,868.4588,254.8993,991.46100,100.91106,607.47113,536.95116,943.06
Payout Ratio58.19%64.55%70.91%77.28%83.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)48,219.2056,968.6466,651.7877,353.0489,163.85102,183.26108,172.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)52,477.6752,975.0953,472.51
Year 2 PV (M)56,557.3757,634.6358,722.05
Year 3 PV (M)60,463.5362,199.2263,967.82
Year 4 PV (M)64,201.2866,670.2869,209.82
Year 5 PV (M)67,775.5971,049.1874,448.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,580,860.501,657,216.651,736,495.13
Equity Value (M)1,882,335.941,967,745.052,056,315.38
Shares Outstanding (M)81.6781.6781.67
Fair Value$23,049.27$24,095.11$25,179.65
Upside / Downside-31.71%-28.61%-25.39%

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