Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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The National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia (4030.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.55 - $107.74$70.03
Multi-Stage$35.03 - $38.26$36.61
Blended Fair Value$53.32
Current Price$24.48
Upside117.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.37%2.63%0.520.310.001.000.981.000.741.251.250.44
YoY Growth--65.00%0.00%-100.00%1.99%-1.73%34.81%-40.64%-0.02%184.83%10.08%
Dividend Yield--2.10%1.47%0.00%6.59%5.91%6.53%5.76%9.31%8.23%2.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,923.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)406.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,517.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)384.71240.44144.27
Cash Retained (M)1,517.491,517.491,517.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-384.71-240.44-144.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,132.781,277.041,373.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)784.41784.41784.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.441.631.75
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.441.631.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.962.152.27
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$48.55$70.03$107.74
Upside / Downside98.31%186.06%340.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,923.542,048.572,181.732,323.542,474.572,635.422,714.48
Payout Ratio21.11%34.89%48.67%62.44%76.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)406.06714.701,061.761,450.911,886.172,371.882,510.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)645.02651.13657.24
Year 2 PV (M)864.80881.28897.90
Year 3 PV (M)1,066.541,097.161,128.36
Year 4 PV (M)1,251.311,299.431,348.93
Year 5 PV (M)1,420.111,488.701,559.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,228.3823,302.0124,416.74
Equity Value (M)27,476.1628,719.7230,009.10
Shares Outstanding (M)784.41784.41784.41
Fair Value$35.03$36.61$38.26
Upside / Downside43.09%49.56%56.28%

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