Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal Co., Ltd. (3948.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$318.83 - $531.56$498.15
Multi-Stage$85.11 - $93.22$89.09
Blended Fair Value$293.62
Current Price$15.93
Upside1,743.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS9.26%3.01%1.230.700.931.171.100.790.600.800.740.90
YoY Growth--75.56%-25.11%-20.03%5.79%39.98%32.04%-25.08%7.92%-17.86%-1.50%
Dividend Yield--8.91%9.43%23.30%22.59%18.74%10.26%9.23%20.61%12.11%11.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,691.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,113.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,577.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,738.261,086.41651.85
Cash Retained (M)6,577.666,577.666,577.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,738.26-1,086.41-651.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,839.415,491.255,925.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,251.733,251.733,251.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.491.691.82
LTM Dividend per Share0.650.650.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.491.691.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.142.342.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$318.83$498.15$531.56
Upside / Downside1,901.44%3,027.10%3,236.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,691.289,256.229,857.8710,498.6311,181.0411,907.8112,265.04
Payout Ratio24.32%37.46%50.59%63.73%76.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,113.623,466.924,987.236,690.528,594.1710,717.0311,345.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,233.643,264.293,294.94
Year 2 PV (M)4,338.644,421.284,504.70
Year 3 PV (M)5,428.785,584.625,743.42
Year 4 PV (M)6,504.206,754.337,011.61
Year 5 PV (M)7,565.057,930.458,309.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)249,675.39261,734.80274,255.76
Equity Value (M)276,745.70289,689.77303,120.25
Shares Outstanding (M)3,251.733,251.733,251.73
Fair Value$85.11$89.09$93.22
Upside / Downside434.26%459.25%485.17%

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