Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

CALB Group Co., Ltd. (3931.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.99 - $6.05$4.96
Multi-Stage$8.29 - $9.12$8.69
Blended Fair Value$6.82
Current Price$15.60
Upside-56.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)808.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)343.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)465.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)161.63101.0260.61
Cash Retained (M)465.01465.01465.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-161.63-101.02-60.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)303.38363.99404.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,772.301,772.301,772.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate6.97%6.97%6.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.99$4.96$6.05
Upside / Downside-74.45%-68.23%-61.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)808.17800.08792.08784.16776.32768.56791.61
Payout Ratio42.46%51.97%61.48%70.98%80.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)343.15415.79486.94556.63624.88691.70732.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.97%6.97%6.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)384.77388.70392.62
Year 2 PV (M)417.00425.55434.19
Year 3 PV (M)441.11454.75468.67
Year 4 PV (M)458.25477.24496.82
Year 5 PV (M)469.41493.85519.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,515.4113,167.1213,845.70
Equity Value (M)14,685.9615,407.2216,157.31
Shares Outstanding (M)1,772.301,772.301,772.30
Fair Value$8.29$8.69$9.12
Upside / Downside-46.88%-44.27%-41.56%

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