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Definitive Analysis

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Ceres Inc. (3696.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20,484.91 - $40,762.36$38,200.30
Multi-Stage$6,266.02 - $6,861.24$6,558.15
Blended Fair Value$22,379.23
Current Price$2,501.00
Upside794.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.15%0.00%19.8119.7838.9917.1813.4613.3911.317.160.000.00
YoY Growth--0.19%-49.28%126.91%27.64%0.53%18.39%58.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.85%1.11%3.11%1.05%0.29%1.95%0.54%0.45%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,359.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)689.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,670.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)471.85294.90176.94
Cash Retained (M)1,670.241,670.241,670.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-471.85-294.90-176.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,198.391,375.331,493.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.5111.5111.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share104.11119.49129.73
LTM Dividend per Share59.8659.8659.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share104.11119.49129.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend163.97179.34189.59
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20,484.91$38,200.30$40,762.36
Upside / Downside719.07%1,427.40%1,529.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,359.242,512.592,675.912,849.843,035.083,232.363,329.33
Payout Ratio29.20%41.36%53.52%65.68%77.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)689.001,039.291,432.221,871.832,362.532,909.133,079.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)968.11977.29986.47
Year 2 PV (M)1,242.751,266.421,290.32
Year 3 PV (M)1,512.971,556.401,600.65
Year 4 PV (M)1,778.811,847.221,917.58
Year 5 PV (M)2,040.342,138.892,241.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)64,581.8467,701.1670,939.87
Equity Value (M)72,124.8175,487.3878,976.10
Shares Outstanding (M)11.5111.5111.51
Fair Value$6,266.02$6,558.15$6,861.24
Upside / Downside150.54%162.22%174.34%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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