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Definitive Analysis

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Eclat Forever Machinery Co., Ltd. (3485.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,018.62 - $2,495.21$2,338.37
Multi-Stage$371.24 - $405.87$388.24
Blended Fair Value$1,363.31
Current Price$70.30
Upside1,839.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.19%0.00%4.074.592.651.621.331.180.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---11.24%73.33%63.48%21.76%13.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.79%9.86%6.70%4.71%4.12%5.79%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)443.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)306.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)137.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)88.6355.3933.24
Cash Retained (M)137.07137.07137.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-88.63-55.39-33.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)48.4481.68103.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)35.3235.3235.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.372.312.94
LTM Dividend per Share8.678.678.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.372.312.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.0410.9811.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,018.62$2,338.37$2,495.21
Upside / Downside1,348.95%3,226.28%3,449.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)443.14471.95502.62535.29570.09607.14625.36
Payout Ratio69.07%73.25%77.44%81.63%85.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)306.07345.72389.24436.95489.21546.43578.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)321.46324.50327.55
Year 2 PV (M)336.51342.92349.39
Year 3 PV (M)351.24361.32371.60
Year 4 PV (M)365.65379.71394.18
Year 5 PV (M)379.75398.09417.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,357.3811,905.9512,475.51
Equity Value (M)13,111.9913,712.5014,335.35
Shares Outstanding (M)35.3235.3235.32
Fair Value$371.24$388.24$405.87
Upside / Downside428.07%452.26%477.35%

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