Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Create Restaurants Holdings Inc. (3387.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$985.78 - $2,631.86$2,466.34
Multi-Stage$416.91 - $456.71$436.44
Blended Fair Value$1,451.39
Current Price$782.00
Upside85.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.07%7.94%3.743.242.990.670.002.662.472.582.842.08
YoY Growth--15.46%8.42%343.31%14,100.00%-99.82%7.69%-4.15%-9.29%36.65%19.27%
Dividend Yield--0.54%0.60%0.60%0.15%0.00%0.64%0.70%0.72%1.15%0.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,594.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,681.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,913.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,118.80699.25419.55
Cash Retained (M)3,913.003,913.003,913.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,118.80-699.25-419.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,794.203,213.753,493.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)421.02421.02421.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.647.638.30
LTM Dividend per Share3.993.993.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.647.638.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.6311.6312.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.07%6.07%7.07%
Fair Value$985.78$2,466.34$2,631.86
Upside / Downside26.06%215.39%236.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,594.005,933.556,293.726,675.747,080.967,510.777,736.09
Payout Ratio30.05%42.04%54.03%66.02%78.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,681.002,494.473,400.504,407.335,523.866,759.697,155.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.07%6.07%7.07%
Year 1 PV (M)2,326.632,348.782,370.92
Year 2 PV (M)2,958.303,014.883,071.99
Year 3 PV (M)3,576.223,679.313,784.35
Year 4 PV (M)4,180.634,342.074,508.14
Year 5 PV (M)4,771.735,003.175,243.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)157,712.86165,362.22173,305.55
Equity Value (M)175,526.37183,750.42192,284.46
Shares Outstanding (M)421.02421.02421.02
Fair Value$416.91$436.44$456.71
Upside / Downside-46.69%-44.19%-41.60%

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