Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Skylark Holdings Co., Ltd. (3197.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$706.62 - $1,093.52$886.01
Multi-Stage$1,505.78 - $1,658.49$1,580.63
Blended Fair Value$1,233.32
Current Price$3,059.00
Upside-59.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.67%0.00%14.440.0312.000.078.7326.8632.8333.4530.9121.64
YoY Growth--46,842.86%-99.74%15,958.82%-99.14%-67.50%-18.21%-1.83%8.19%42.83%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.48%0.00%0.69%0.00%0.53%1.68%1.80%2.18%1.90%1.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17,223.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,339.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,884.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,444.602,152.881,291.73
Cash Retained (M)12,884.0012,884.0012,884.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,444.60-2,152.88-1,291.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,439.4010,731.1311,592.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)227.50227.50227.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share41.4947.1750.95
LTM Dividend per Share19.0719.0719.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share41.4947.1750.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend60.5666.2470.03
WACC / Discount Rate6.62%6.62%6.62%
Growth Rate-1.80%-0.80%0.20%
Fair Value$706.62$886.01$1,093.52
Upside / Downside-76.90%-71.04%-64.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17,223.0017,085.5316,949.1516,813.8716,679.6616,546.5217,042.92
Payout Ratio25.19%38.15%51.12%64.08%77.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,339.006,518.898,663.7010,773.8612,849.7814,891.8715,764.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.62%6.62%6.62%
Growth Rate-1.80%-0.80%0.20%
Year 1 PV (M)6,052.586,114.226,175.85
Year 2 PV (M)7,468.577,621.467,775.89
Year 3 PV (M)8,623.288,889.419,160.96
Year 4 PV (M)9,549.149,944.0810,351.15
Year 5 PV (M)10,275.0710,809.0011,364.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)300,598.41316,218.44332,481.16
Equity Value (M)342,567.05359,596.60377,309.89
Shares Outstanding (M)227.50227.50227.50
Fair Value$1,505.78$1,580.63$1,658.49
Upside / Downside-50.78%-48.33%-45.78%

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