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Yamama Saudi Cement Company (3020.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$87.36 - $410.16$193.69
Multi-Stage$61.80 - $67.68$64.69
Blended Fair Value$129.19
Current Price$31.74
Upside307.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS107.40%-12.35%0.991.000.000.010.490.030.000.251.462.95
YoY Growth---1.48%43,068.53%-67.10%-98.54%1,785.27%0.00%-100.00%-82.61%-50.54%-20.11%
Dividend Yield--2.48%3.04%0.01%0.02%1.46%0.14%0.00%1.59%8.00%10.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)422.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)214.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)207.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.4152.7631.66
Cash Retained (M)207.98207.98207.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.41-52.76-31.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)123.57155.23176.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)202.41202.41202.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.770.87
LTM Dividend per Share1.061.061.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.770.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.671.821.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate4.32%5.32%6.32%
Fair Value$87.36$193.69$410.16
Upside / Downside175.23%510.25%1,192.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)422.07444.54468.21493.13519.39547.04563.45
Payout Ratio50.72%58.58%66.43%74.29%82.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)214.09260.40311.05366.34426.65492.33521.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate4.32%5.32%6.32%
Year 1 PV (M)242.61244.94247.26
Year 2 PV (M)269.99275.19280.44
Year 3 PV (M)296.26304.86313.62
Year 4 PV (M)321.44333.95346.81
Year 5 PV (M)345.58362.47380.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,032.8511,571.8612,131.74
Equity Value (M)12,508.7313,093.2513,699.88
Shares Outstanding (M)202.41202.41202.41
Fair Value$61.80$64.69$67.68
Upside / Downside94.70%103.80%113.24%

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