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Definitive Analysis

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Asia Optical Co., Inc. (3019.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$149.09 - $377.23$224.65
Multi-Stage$170.43 - $186.72$178.42
Blended Fair Value$201.54
Current Price$158.50
Upside27.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.91%4.97%1.781.883.681.001.992.291.591.001.881.32
YoY Growth---5.26%-48.98%270.00%-50.00%-13.04%43.75%60.00%-46.96%42.28%20.33%
Dividend Yield--1.30%2.90%5.58%1.26%2.23%3.75%1.64%0.97%3.62%4.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,914.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,116.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)797.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)382.80239.25143.55
Cash Retained (M)797.04797.04797.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-382.80-239.25-143.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)414.24557.79653.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)282.33282.33282.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.471.982.31
LTM Dividend per Share3.963.963.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.471.982.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.425.936.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate2.93%3.93%4.93%
Fair Value$149.09$224.65$377.23
Upside / Downside-5.94%41.74%138.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,914.021,989.262,067.462,148.742,233.212,321.002,390.63
Payout Ratio58.36%64.69%71.01%77.34%83.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,116.981,286.781,468.201,661.901,868.562,088.902,211.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate2.93%3.93%4.93%
Year 1 PV (M)1,194.651,206.251,217.86
Year 2 PV (M)1,265.491,290.201,315.14
Year 3 PV (M)1,329.891,369.021,408.92
Year 4 PV (M)1,388.201,442.941,499.28
Year 5 PV (M)1,440.791,512.151,586.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)41,497.5443,552.8845,688.87
Equity Value (M)48,116.5550,373.4552,716.39
Shares Outstanding (M)282.33282.33282.33
Fair Value$170.43$178.42$186.72
Upside / Downside7.53%12.57%17.81%

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