Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang Huaye Plastics Machinery Co., Ltd. (301616.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.51 - $29.17$24.78
Multi-Stage$30.29 - $33.32$31.77
Blended Fair Value$28.28
Current Price$51.71
Upside-45.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.150.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.27%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)199.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)196.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.9324.9614.97
Cash Retained (M)196.06196.06196.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.93-24.96-14.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)156.13171.11181.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)65.0065.0065.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.402.632.79
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.402.632.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.462.692.84
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$20.51$24.78$29.17
Upside / Downside-60.33%-52.08%-43.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)199.66197.67195.69193.73191.80189.88195.57
Payout Ratio1.80%19.44%37.08%54.72%72.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.6038.4372.57106.01138.78170.89180.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)34.6735.0235.37
Year 2 PV (M)59.0560.2661.48
Year 3 PV (M)77.8180.2282.67
Year 4 PV (M)91.8995.7099.62
Year 5 PV (M)102.06107.38112.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,603.231,686.721,773.64
Equity Value (M)1,968.712,065.292,165.70
Shares Outstanding (M)65.0065.0065.00
Fair Value$30.29$31.77$33.32
Upside / Downside-41.43%-38.55%-35.57%

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