Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Huayuan Auto Technology Co Ltd (301535.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.90 - $4.16$3.52
Multi-Stage$4.73 - $5.19$4.95
Blended Fair Value$4.24
Current Price$20.14
Upside-78.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)125.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)71.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.0515.659.39
Cash Retained (M)71.5171.5171.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.05-15.65-9.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.4655.8562.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)300.19300.19300.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.90$3.52$4.16
Upside / Downside-85.59%-82.53%-79.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)125.23123.98122.74121.51120.29119.09122.66
Payout Ratio42.90%52.32%61.74%71.16%80.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.7264.8675.7886.4796.93107.18113.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)58.7659.3659.96
Year 2 PV (M)62.1963.4664.75
Year 3 PV (M)64.2866.2768.30
Year 4 PV (M)65.2867.9970.78
Year 5 PV (M)65.3968.8072.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,103.831,161.311,221.16
Equity Value (M)1,419.741,487.191,557.29
Shares Outstanding (M)300.19300.19300.19
Fair Value$4.73$4.95$5.19
Upside / Downside-76.52%-75.40%-74.24%

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