Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

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Industry

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Jiangsu Jingxue Insulation Technology Co.,Ltd. (301010.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.37 - $1.95$1.66
Multi-Stage$2.08 - $2.29$2.18
Blended Fair Value$1.92
Current Price$18.87
Upside-89.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS13.80%0.00%0.220.120.220.010.020.120.210.020.200.00
YoY Growth--79.92%-43.02%1,634.25%-17.76%-86.95%-43.79%855.73%-89.40%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.34%0.87%1.09%0.05%0.05%0.38%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.332.701.62
Cash Retained (M)20.0220.0220.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.33-2.70-1.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.6917.3218.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)108.04108.04108.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.160.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.160.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.37$1.66$1.95
Upside / Downside-92.75%-91.23%-89.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21.6321.4121.2020.9820.7720.5721.18
Payout Ratio7.44%23.95%40.46%56.97%73.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.615.138.5811.9615.2718.5119.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4.644.684.73
Year 2 PV (M)7.017.167.30
Year 3 PV (M)8.849.119.39
Year 4 PV (M)10.2110.6311.07
Year 5 PV (M)11.1911.7712.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)182.95192.48202.40
Equity Value (M)224.83235.83247.27
Shares Outstanding (M)108.04108.04108.04
Fair Value$2.08$2.18$2.29
Upside / Downside-88.97%-88.43%-87.87%

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