Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co., Ltd (300999.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.63 - $10.31$8.33
Multi-Stage$15.72 - $17.29$16.49
Blended Fair Value$12.41
Current Price$31.55
Upside-60.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-4.63%0.00%0.520.540.080.110.330.660.530.490.430.00
YoY Growth---3.92%601.96%-30.63%-66.91%-49.04%24.70%7.57%14.61%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.65%1.73%0.18%0.22%0.43%1.17%0.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,819.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,646.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,173.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)763.91477.44286.47
Cash Retained (M)1,173.541,173.541,173.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-763.91-477.44-286.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)409.63696.09887.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,433.665,433.665,433.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.130.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.130.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.620.65
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.63$8.33$10.31
Upside / Downside-78.98%-73.59%-67.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,819.543,781.353,743.533,706.103,669.043,632.353,741.32
Payout Ratio69.28%73.42%77.57%81.71%85.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,646.012,776.282,903.683,028.263,150.053,269.113,460.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2,585.132,611.512,637.89
Year 2 PV (M)2,517.612,569.252,621.42
Year 3 PV (M)2,444.852,520.462,597.61
Year 4 PV (M)2,368.082,466.232,567.40
Year 5 PV (M)2,288.382,407.542,531.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)73,203.8577,015.7580,984.81
Equity Value (M)85,407.9189,590.7493,940.74
Shares Outstanding (M)5,433.665,433.665,433.66
Fair Value$15.72$16.49$17.29
Upside / Downside-50.18%-47.74%-45.20%

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