Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Chuangyitong Technology Co.,Ltd. (300991.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.50 - $33.68$13.15
Multi-Stage$3.75 - $4.09$3.91
Blended Fair Value$8.53
Current Price$40.00
Upside-78.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS71.95%150.21%0.150.020.230.010.010.010.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--700.86%-91.79%1,776.00%-5.51%29.05%361.95%128.06%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.79%0.13%1.56%0.07%0.04%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)25.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.093.181.91
Cash Retained (M)7.817.817.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.09-3.18-1.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.724.635.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)150.37150.37150.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate7.70%7.70%7.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.50$13.15$33.68
Upside / Downside-83.76%-67.13%-15.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)25.4727.1228.8830.7632.7634.8935.94
Payout Ratio69.32%73.46%77.59%81.73%85.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.6519.9222.4125.1428.1331.4033.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.70%7.70%7.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)18.3218.5018.67
Year 2 PV (M)18.9619.3219.69
Year 3 PV (M)19.5620.1320.70
Year 4 PV (M)20.1320.9121.70
Year 5 PV (M)20.6721.6722.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)465.59488.08511.42
Equity Value (M)563.24588.60614.89
Shares Outstanding (M)150.37150.37150.37
Fair Value$3.75$3.91$4.09
Upside / Downside-90.64%-90.21%-89.78%

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