Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hubei Xiangyuan New Material Technology Inc. (300980.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.08 - $28.64$14.60
Multi-Stage$6.14 - $6.70$6.41
Blended Fair Value$10.51
Current Price$27.46
Upside-61.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.08%26.02%0.260.140.170.010.090.100.020.070.010.04
YoY Growth--84.51%-18.10%1,114.63%-83.37%-14.71%411.63%-70.34%449.48%-70.31%56.81%
Dividend Yield--1.07%0.73%0.82%0.06%0.23%0.27%0.00%0.18%0.03%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)45.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.075.673.40
Cash Retained (M)20.6020.6020.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.07-5.67-3.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.5414.9417.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)131.96131.96131.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate8.69%8.69%8.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.08$14.60$28.64
Upside / Downside-66.93%-46.84%4.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)45.3348.2751.4154.7558.3162.1063.96
Payout Ratio54.54%61.63%68.73%75.82%82.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.7229.7535.3341.5148.3455.8959.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.69%8.69%8.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)27.1227.3727.63
Year 2 PV (M)29.3529.9130.47
Year 3 PV (M)31.4232.3333.25
Year 4 PV (M)33.3534.6435.96
Year 5 PV (M)35.1436.8438.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)653.53685.10717.87
Equity Value (M)809.92846.18883.78
Shares Outstanding (M)131.96131.96131.96
Fair Value$6.14$6.41$6.70
Upside / Downside-77.65%-76.65%-75.61%

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