Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Sanyou Corporation Limited (300932.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.99 - $18.00$10.59
Multi-Stage$8.07 - $8.83$8.45
Blended Fair Value$9.52
Current Price$11.03
Upside-13.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS44.01%0.00%0.230.100.160.180.020.040.060.060.060.00
YoY Growth--135.31%-39.33%-14.29%659.30%-33.33%-35.73%-2.12%-2.03%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.03%1.43%1.75%1.68%0.17%0.17%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)74.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)63.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.959.345.61
Cash Retained (M)11.6111.6111.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.95-9.34-5.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3.342.266.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)238.89238.89238.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.010.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.010.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate2.97%3.97%4.97%
Fair Value$6.99$10.59$18.00
Upside / Downside-36.64%-4.00%63.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)74.7477.7180.8084.0087.3490.8193.53
Payout Ratio84.47%85.58%86.68%87.79%88.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)63.1466.5170.0473.7577.6481.7386.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate2.97%3.97%4.97%
Year 1 PV (M)61.7562.3562.95
Year 2 PV (M)60.3961.5762.76
Year 3 PV (M)59.0460.7862.55
Year 4 PV (M)57.7260.0062.34
Year 5 PV (M)56.4259.2162.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,632.881,713.731,797.74
Equity Value (M)1,928.212,017.632,110.45
Shares Outstanding (M)238.89238.89238.89
Fair Value$8.07$8.45$8.83
Upside / Downside-26.82%-23.43%-19.91%

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