Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Hui Chuang Da Technology Co., Ltd. (300909.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.63 - $32.26$18.02
Multi-Stage$8.20 - $8.94$8.56
Blended Fair Value$13.29
Current Price$33.50
Upside-60.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%13.65%0.220.020.300.010.010.000.060.000.000.00
YoY Growth--1,163.26%-94.07%3,220.25%-19.02%0.00%-100.00%6,957.08%0.00%-100.00%-96.72%
Dividend Yield--0.81%0.07%0.86%0.03%0.04%0.00%0.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)82.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.5710.356.21
Cash Retained (M)31.3631.3631.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.57-10.35-6.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.8021.0125.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)172.97172.97172.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.420.44
WACC / Discount Rate8.98%8.98%8.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.63$18.02$32.26
Upside / Downside-65.30%-46.21%-3.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)82.8388.2193.94100.05106.55113.48116.88
Payout Ratio62.13%67.71%73.28%78.85%84.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.4659.7268.8478.8989.96102.13108.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.98%8.98%8.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)54.2954.8055.32
Year 2 PV (M)56.8857.9759.06
Year 3 PV (M)59.2660.9662.69
Year 4 PV (M)61.4263.7866.21
Year 5 PV (M)63.3966.4569.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,122.871,177.111,233.42
Equity Value (M)1,418.111,481.071,546.33
Shares Outstanding (M)172.97172.97172.97
Fair Value$8.20$8.56$8.94
Upside / Downside-75.53%-74.44%-73.31%

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