Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhe Kuang Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd. (300837.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.61 - $77.74$25.58
Multi-Stage$8.31 - $9.07$8.68
Blended Fair Value$17.13
Current Price$25.24
Upside-32.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162014
DPS186.59%19.09%0.300.280.280.280.000.000.020.030.040.05
YoY Growth--4.25%0.19%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-90.77%-39.72%-34.32%-21.27%3.18%
Dividend Yield--1.39%1.15%0.61%0.72%0.00%0.01%0.07%0.00%0.00%0.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.275.173.10
Cash Retained (M)8.748.748.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.27-5.17-3.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.473.575.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)105.72105.72105.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.030.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.030.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate7.92%7.92%7.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13.61$25.58$77.74
Upside / Downside-46.07%1.36%208.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41.3344.0146.8749.9253.1656.6258.32
Payout Ratio78.86%81.09%83.32%85.54%87.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.5935.6939.0542.7046.6650.9653.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.92%7.92%7.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)32.7633.0733.38
Year 2 PV (M)32.9033.5334.16
Year 3 PV (M)33.0233.9734.94
Year 4 PV (M)33.1234.4035.71
Year 5 PV (M)33.2034.8036.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)713.79748.27784.06
Equity Value (M)878.80918.04958.72
Shares Outstanding (M)105.72105.72105.72
Fair Value$8.31$8.68$9.07
Upside / Downside-67.07%-65.60%-64.07%

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