Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

JinXianDai Information Industry Co.,Ltd. (300830.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.23 - $0.34$0.28
Multi-Stage$0.40 - $0.44$0.42
Blended Fair Value$0.35
Current Price$11.69
Upside-96.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%114.69%0.030.050.050.020.000.000.000.000.000.01
YoY Growth---52.57%4.28%116.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%117,578.43%
Dividend Yield--0.30%0.81%0.50%0.26%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.771.731.04
Cash Retained (M)2.902.902.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.77-1.73-1.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.141.181.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)415.31415.31415.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.030.03
WACC / Discount Rate9.16%9.16%9.16%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.23$0.28$0.34
Upside / Downside-98.00%-97.57%-97.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.8313.7013.5613.4213.2913.1613.55
Payout Ratio79.01%81.20%83.40%85.60%87.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.9311.1211.3111.4911.6711.8412.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.16%9.16%9.16%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)10.0910.1910.29
Year 2 PV (M)9.309.499.68
Year 3 PV (M)8.578.849.11
Year 4 PV (M)7.898.228.56
Year 5 PV (M)7.267.648.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)124.87131.38138.15
Equity Value (M)167.98175.75183.82
Shares Outstanding (M)415.31415.31415.31
Fair Value$0.40$0.42$0.44
Upside / Downside-96.54%-96.38%-96.21%

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