Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Lihe Technology (Hunan) Co., Ltd. (300800.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.10 - $6.46$4.37
Multi-Stage$3.34 - $3.66$3.50
Blended Fair Value$3.94
Current Price$11.48
Upside-65.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.13%24.29%0.180.150.150.170.170.140.120.040.020.01
YoY Growth--19.04%0.68%-10.01%-1.99%21.49%21.49%170.47%117.80%96.54%-51.30%
Dividend Yield--1.76%1.40%1.14%0.85%0.87%0.65%0.48%0.18%0.08%0.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)40.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.065.043.02
Cash Retained (M)21.7921.7921.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.06-5.04-3.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.7416.7618.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)232.69232.69232.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate7.74%7.74%7.74%
Growth Rate3.13%4.13%5.13%
Fair Value$3.10$4.37$6.46
Upside / Downside-72.99%-61.89%-43.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)40.2841.9543.6845.4947.3649.3250.80
Payout Ratio45.90%54.72%63.54%72.36%81.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.4922.9527.7632.9138.4544.3946.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.74%7.74%7.74%
Growth Rate3.13%4.13%5.13%
Year 1 PV (M)21.1021.3121.51
Year 2 PV (M)23.4523.9124.37
Year 3 PV (M)25.5726.3227.09
Year 4 PV (M)27.4628.5429.65
Year 5 PV (M)29.1430.5832.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)651.25683.44716.89
Equity Value (M)777.97814.10851.59
Shares Outstanding (M)232.69232.69232.69
Fair Value$3.34$3.50$3.66
Upside / Downside-70.88%-69.52%-68.12%

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