Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang Meorient Commerce Exhibition Inc. (300795.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.00 - $98.41$92.22
Multi-Stage$15.00 - $16.40$15.69
Blended Fair Value$53.95
Current Price$14.43
Upside273.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%47.98%0.590.000.000.000.410.000.210.130.100.01
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%69.14%33.03%616.87%13.77%
Dividend Yield--3.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%5.16%0.00%3.04%1.80%1.35%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)121.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)79.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)42.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.3315.219.12
Cash Retained (M)42.1342.1342.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.33-15.21-9.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.8026.9233.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)245.87245.87245.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.430.46
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$44.00$92.22$98.41
Upside / Downside204.89%539.10%581.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)121.66129.57137.99146.96156.51166.68171.69
Payout Ratio65.37%70.30%75.22%80.15%85.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)79.5391.08103.80117.78133.15150.02158.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)84.7685.5686.37
Year 2 PV (M)89.8991.6093.33
Year 3 PV (M)94.9297.65100.42
Year 4 PV (M)99.86103.70107.65
Year 5 PV (M)104.70109.76115.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,213.293,368.493,529.64
Equity Value (M)3,687.423,856.764,032.41
Shares Outstanding (M)245.87245.87245.87
Fair Value$15.00$15.69$16.40
Upside / Downside3.93%8.71%13.66%

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