Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anfu CE LINK Limited (300787.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.02 - $81.89$75.26
Multi-Stage$10.62 - $11.61$11.10
Blended Fair Value$43.18
Current Price$13.95
Upside209.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS107.54%31.63%0.270.590.350.190.150.010.140.070.000.02
YoY Growth---55.27%70.76%83.18%23.41%2,130.12%-95.24%98.81%2,035.53%-84.07%26.03%
Dividend Yield--2.28%6.20%2.26%1.62%1.15%0.05%0.66%0.33%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)113.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)63.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.7214.208.52
Cash Retained (M)49.6449.6449.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.72-14.20-8.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.9335.4541.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)275.86275.86275.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.02$75.26$81.89
Upside / Downside65.00%439.51%487.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)113.59120.97128.83137.21146.13155.62160.29
Payout Ratio56.29%63.04%69.78%76.52%83.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)63.9476.2589.90104.99121.66140.06148.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)70.5971.2671.93
Year 2 PV (M)77.0478.5079.98
Year 3 PV (M)83.2985.6888.11
Year 4 PV (M)89.3592.7896.32
Year 5 PV (M)95.2299.82104.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,513.762,635.182,761.24
Equity Value (M)2,929.243,063.213,202.17
Shares Outstanding (M)275.86275.86275.86
Fair Value$10.62$11.10$11.61
Upside / Downside-23.88%-20.40%-16.79%

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