Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Sie Consulting Co., Ltd. (300687.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.20 - $11.27$6.45
Multi-Stage$3.03 - $3.30$3.16
Blended Fair Value$4.81
Current Price$28.20
Upside-82.96%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS35.82%0.00%0.160.120.110.090.060.040.040.020.000.01
YoY Growth--33.59%11.53%21.32%42.10%79.94%-9.30%122.22%2,589.03%-94.12%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.50%0.65%0.28%0.39%0.35%0.33%0.32%0.12%0.01%0.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)72.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.479.045.43
Cash Retained (M)19.5619.5619.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.47-9.04-5.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.1010.5214.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)407.16407.16407.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.16
WACC / Discount Rate9.07%9.07%9.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.20$6.45$11.27
Upside / Downside-85.10%-77.14%-60.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)72.3377.0482.0487.3893.0599.10102.08
Payout Ratio72.96%76.36%79.77%83.18%86.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.7758.8365.4572.6880.5889.1994.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.07%9.07%9.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)53.4353.9454.44
Year 2 PV (M)53.9955.0256.06
Year 3 PV (M)54.4556.0257.61
Year 4 PV (M)54.8356.9459.11
Year 5 PV (M)55.1357.7960.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)961.741,008.191,056.42
Equity Value (M)1,233.571,287.891,344.19
Shares Outstanding (M)407.16407.16407.16
Fair Value$3.03$3.16$3.30
Upside / Downside-89.26%-88.78%-88.29%

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