Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co., Ltd. (300673.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$54.86 - $104.68$98.10
Multi-Stage$16.67 - $18.23$17.44
Blended Fair Value$57.77
Current Price$17.86
Upside223.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-28.73%4.86%0.040.040.070.090.030.240.150.150.110.08
YoY Growth--19.70%-45.46%-24.07%191.50%-87.27%58.51%1.74%29.40%43.17%192.56%
Dividend Yield--0.26%0.32%0.38%0.58%0.15%1.39%0.50%0.86%0.96%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)141.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)96.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)44.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.2017.6210.57
Cash Retained (M)44.7044.7044.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.20-17.62-10.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.5027.0734.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)267.87267.87267.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.100.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.100.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.49
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$54.86$98.10$104.68
Upside / Downside207.15%449.29%486.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)141.00150.16159.92170.32181.39193.18198.97
Payout Ratio68.30%72.64%76.98%81.32%85.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)96.30109.08123.11138.50155.38173.86184.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)101.64102.60103.57
Year 2 PV (M)106.89108.93110.98
Year 3 PV (M)112.06115.27118.55
Year 4 PV (M)117.14121.64126.28
Year 5 PV (M)122.14128.04134.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,906.394,095.074,290.97
Equity Value (M)4,466.264,671.564,884.51
Shares Outstanding (M)267.87267.87267.87
Fair Value$16.67$17.44$18.23
Upside / Downside-6.64%-2.35%2.10%

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