Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hamaton Automotive Technology Co., Ltd (300643.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.80 - $6.72$5.76
Multi-Stage$4.15 - $4.50$4.32
Blended Fair Value$5.04
Current Price$22.73
Upside-77.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.19%-0.98%0.170.140.110.100.030.060.100.080.050.01
YoY Growth--21.96%32.74%4.00%197.62%-43.38%-36.66%23.91%47.47%659.45%-96.37%
Dividend Yield--1.03%1.28%0.78%0.93%0.36%0.44%0.92%0.64%0.86%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)166.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)125.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.2020.7512.45
Cash Retained (M)125.69125.69125.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.20-20.75-12.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)92.49104.94113.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)230.50230.50230.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.630.67
WACC / Discount Rate18.16%18.16%18.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.80$5.76$6.72
Upside / Downside-78.87%-74.67%-70.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)166.02176.81188.30200.54213.58227.46234.28
Payout Ratio24.29%37.43%50.58%63.72%76.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.3366.1995.23127.78164.15204.71216.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate18.16%18.16%18.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)55.4956.0156.54
Year 2 PV (M)66.9468.2169.50
Year 3 PV (M)75.3077.4679.66
Year 4 PV (M)81.1084.2287.42
Year 5 PV (M)84.7988.8893.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)592.15620.75650.45
Equity Value (M)955.76995.541,036.71
Shares Outstanding (M)230.50230.50230.50
Fair Value$4.15$4.32$4.50
Upside / Downside-81.76%-81.00%-80.21%

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