Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Fibocom Wireless Inc. (300638.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.52 - $18.78$12.26
Multi-Stage$6.08 - $6.64$6.35
Blended Fair Value$9.31
Current Price$30.37
Upside-69.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS61.69%70.11%0.440.080.110.090.080.040.010.000.010.02
YoY Growth--430.34%-23.76%14.12%20.08%99.48%202.97%1,229.79%-92.48%-33.33%809.09%
Dividend Yield--1.35%0.46%0.55%0.46%0.46%0.33%0.12%0.02%0.60%0.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)332.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)298.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.4441.5324.92
Cash Retained (M)298.01298.01298.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.44-41.53-24.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)231.57256.49273.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)765.49765.49765.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.340.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.340.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.52$12.26$18.78
Upside / Downside-71.94%-59.62%-38.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)332.22353.81376.81401.30427.39455.17468.82
Payout Ratio10.30%26.24%42.18%58.12%74.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.2192.83158.93233.23316.52409.65433.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)83.7584.5585.34
Year 2 PV (M)129.37131.83134.32
Year 3 PV (M)171.28176.20181.21
Year 4 PV (M)209.72217.78226.08
Year 5 PV (M)244.88256.71268.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,813.423,997.614,188.85
Equity Value (M)4,652.424,864.685,084.78
Shares Outstanding (M)765.49765.49765.49
Fair Value$6.08$6.35$6.64
Upside / Downside-79.99%-79.07%-78.13%

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