Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.,Ltd. (300618.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.83 - $36.11$24.00
Multi-Stage$12.40 - $13.54$12.96
Blended Fair Value$18.48
Current Price$56.08
Upside-67.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-18.31%13.13%0.250.270.650.310.100.690.490.020.050.06
YoY Growth---4.89%-59.34%111.14%217.08%-85.94%41.33%2,071.05%-55.46%-17.82%-15.97%
Dividend Yield--0.70%0.92%1.55%0.49%0.15%1.51%0.79%0.02%0.11%0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)272.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)197.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.5634.1020.46
Cash Retained (M)197.50197.50197.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.56-34.10-20.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)142.94163.40177.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)308.24308.24308.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.530.57
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.530.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.710.770.82
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16.83$24.00$36.11
Upside / Downside-69.98%-57.21%-35.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)272.78290.51309.40329.51350.93373.74384.95
Payout Ratio27.60%40.08%52.56%65.04%77.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.28116.43162.62214.31272.04336.36356.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)104.92105.91106.90
Year 2 PV (M)132.03134.55137.09
Year 3 PV (M)156.79161.29165.88
Year 4 PV (M)179.34186.23193.33
Year 5 PV (M)199.81209.46219.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,049.253,196.533,349.45
Equity Value (M)3,822.133,993.974,172.12
Shares Outstanding (M)308.24308.24308.24
Fair Value$12.40$12.96$13.54
Upside / Downside-77.89%-76.90%-75.86%

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