Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Korrun Co., Ltd. (300577.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$116.29 - $276.71$259.32
Multi-Stage$40.63 - $44.47$42.52
Blended Fair Value$150.92
Current Price$23.60
Upside539.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.18%48.46%0.390.220.240.200.190.190.160.140.210.06
YoY Growth--82.69%-10.43%22.20%4.15%-2.67%18.80%18.46%-35.05%269.58%659.66%
Dividend Yield--1.77%1.14%1.60%1.30%0.78%0.73%0.49%0.36%0.90%0.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)338.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)122.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)215.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.6242.2625.36
Cash Retained (M)215.62215.62215.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.62-42.26-25.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)148.00173.36190.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)242.99242.99242.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.710.78
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.710.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.111.221.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$116.29$259.32$276.71
Upside / Downside392.74%998.82%1,072.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)338.10360.07383.48408.41434.95463.22477.12
Payout Ratio36.22%46.98%57.73%68.49%79.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)122.48169.16221.40279.72344.68416.90441.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)157.33158.82160.32
Year 2 PV (M)191.52195.16198.85
Year 3 PV (M)225.04231.50238.08
Year 4 PV (M)257.91267.83278.03
Year 5 PV (M)290.13304.15318.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,750.759,173.429,612.26
Equity Value (M)9,872.6810,330.8810,806.23
Shares Outstanding (M)242.99242.99242.99
Fair Value$40.63$42.52$44.47
Upside / Downside72.16%80.15%88.44%

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