Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Hangzhou Jizhi Mechatronic Co., Ltd. (300553.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.05 - $4.49$3.74
Multi-Stage$4.30 - $4.72$4.51
Blended Fair Value$4.13
Current Price$38.64
Upside-89.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.31%-6.24%0.100.100.020.100.000.100.120.120.100.10
YoY Growth---6.21%370.45%-77.69%0.00%-100.00%-20.00%0.00%19.05%0.00%-44.00%
Dividend Yield--0.30%0.43%0.06%0.50%0.00%0.48%0.56%0.54%0.23%0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.454.662.79
Cash Retained (M)33.4833.4833.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.45-4.66-2.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.0328.8230.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)96.8596.8596.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.300.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.300.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate-0.56%0.44%1.44%
Fair Value$3.05$3.74$4.49
Upside / Downside-92.10%-90.31%-88.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37.2537.4237.5837.7537.9238.0939.23
Payout Ratio10.13%26.10%42.08%58.05%74.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.779.7715.8121.9128.0734.2836.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate-0.56%0.44%1.44%
Year 1 PV (M)8.838.929.01
Year 2 PV (M)12.9313.2013.46
Year 3 PV (M)16.2116.7017.21
Year 4 PV (M)18.7819.5420.33
Year 5 PV (M)20.7421.8022.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)339.04356.43374.53
Equity Value (M)416.52436.59457.44
Shares Outstanding (M)96.8596.8596.85
Fair Value$4.30$4.51$4.72
Upside / Downside-88.87%-88.33%-87.78%

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