Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Guangzhou Haozhi Industrial Co.,Ltd. (300503.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.64 - $3.76$3.19
Multi-Stage$3.97 - $4.36$4.16
Blended Fair Value$3.68
Current Price$30.97
Upside-88.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.28%0.00%0.080.080.160.110.070.120.080.080.000.05
YoY Growth--2.78%-47.00%36.05%61.39%-39.55%52.40%-1.59%5,211.55%-96.95%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.34%0.53%1.54%1.05%0.60%1.02%0.74%0.58%0.01%0.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)123.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)104.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.7315.469.27
Cash Retained (M)104.69104.69104.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.73-15.46-9.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)79.9689.2395.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)310.22310.22310.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.290.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.290.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.64$3.19$3.76
Upside / Downside-91.46%-89.69%-87.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)123.64122.41121.18119.97118.77117.58121.11
Payout Ratio15.33%30.26%45.20%60.13%75.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.9637.0554.7772.1489.16105.82112.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)33.3933.7334.08
Year 2 PV (M)44.5145.4246.34
Year 3 PV (M)52.8454.4756.14
Year 4 PV (M)58.8761.3163.82
Year 5 PV (M)62.9866.2669.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)978.331,029.281,082.32
Equity Value (M)1,230.931,290.481,352.38
Shares Outstanding (M)310.22310.22310.22
Fair Value$3.97$4.16$4.36
Upside / Downside-87.19%-86.57%-85.92%

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