Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Victory Giant Technology (HuiZhou)Co.,Ltd. (300476.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$80.65 - $173.73$115.12
Multi-Stage$57.89 - $63.27$60.53
Blended Fair Value$87.83
Current Price$285.50
Upside-69.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.30%18.06%0.300.270.270.260.230.180.150.150.060.01
YoY Growth--13.02%-2.20%5.37%11.70%31.28%18.95%-0.41%141.27%1,113.93%-91.12%
Dividend Yield--0.37%1.09%1.53%1.12%0.99%0.99%1.03%0.94%0.48%0.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,634.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)339.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,295.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)726.93454.33272.60
Cash Retained (M)3,295.173,295.173,295.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-726.93-454.33-272.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,568.242,840.843,022.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)861.69861.69861.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.983.303.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.983.303.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.373.693.90
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$80.65$115.12$173.73
Upside / Downside-71.75%-59.68%-39.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,634.653,870.904,122.514,390.474,675.854,979.785,129.17
Payout Ratio9.34%25.47%41.60%57.74%73.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)339.48985.991,715.132,534.883,453.964,481.804,744.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)888.63897.06905.48
Year 2 PV (M)1,393.141,419.671,446.46
Year 3 PV (M)1,855.681,908.951,963.23
Year 4 PV (M)2,278.832,366.462,456.60
Year 5 PV (M)2,664.992,793.712,927.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,802.1142,772.8744,819.05
Equity Value (M)49,883.3852,158.7254,518.18
Shares Outstanding (M)861.69861.69861.69
Fair Value$57.89$60.53$63.27
Upside / Downside-79.72%-78.80%-77.84%

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