Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing ConST Instruments Technology Inc. (300445.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.38 - $24.15$16.16
Multi-Stage$8.29 - $9.05$8.66
Blended Fair Value$12.41
Current Price$18.88
Upside-34.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.88%7.09%0.080.070.060.050.050.110.060.040.030.03
YoY Growth--15.76%16.67%12.75%-1.49%-53.33%83.93%61.37%12.76%5.17%-19.53%
Dividend Yield--0.39%0.37%0.44%0.44%0.43%0.93%0.54%0.30%0.15%0.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)130.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)109.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.0716.299.77
Cash Retained (M)109.99109.99109.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.07-16.29-9.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)83.9293.70100.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)214.78214.78214.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.440.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.440.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.38$16.16$24.15
Upside / Downside-39.70%-14.40%27.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)130.33138.80147.82157.43167.67178.56183.92
Payout Ratio15.61%30.49%45.36%60.24%75.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.3442.3267.0694.84125.95160.71170.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)38.1138.4738.83
Year 2 PV (M)54.3955.4256.47
Year 3 PV (M)69.2771.2673.29
Year 4 PV (M)82.8586.0389.31
Year 5 PV (M)95.1999.79104.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,439.861,509.411,581.62
Equity Value (M)1,779.671,860.381,944.08
Shares Outstanding (M)214.78214.78214.78
Fair Value$8.29$8.66$9.05
Upside / Downside-56.11%-54.12%-52.06%

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