Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Mianyang Fulin Precision Co.,Ltd. (300432.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.61 - $12.57$8.12
Multi-Stage$4.12 - $4.50$4.31
Blended Fair Value$6.22
Current Price$22.22
Upside-72.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.99%14.57%0.020.180.020.000.000.000.070.110.050.02
YoY Growth---88.25%643.31%1,127.67%0.00%-100.00%-93.45%-32.91%102.60%120.00%344.28%
Dividend Yield--0.15%3.27%0.25%0.02%0.00%0.20%3.69%2.43%0.74%0.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)411.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)156.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)254.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)82.2351.4030.84
Cash Retained (M)254.68254.68254.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-82.23-51.40-30.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)172.45203.29223.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,465.341,465.341,465.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.61$8.12$12.57
Upside / Downside-74.74%-63.45%-43.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)411.16437.89466.35496.66528.95563.33580.23
Payout Ratio38.06%48.45%58.84%69.22%79.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)156.48212.14274.38343.81421.10507.00536.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)191.54193.35195.17
Year 2 PV (M)223.66227.92232.22
Year 3 PV (M)253.03260.30267.70
Year 4 PV (M)279.81290.57301.64
Year 5 PV (M)304.16318.85334.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,792.025,023.475,263.79
Equity Value (M)6,044.226,314.476,594.62
Shares Outstanding (M)1,465.341,465.341,465.34
Fair Value$4.12$4.31$4.50
Upside / Downside-81.44%-80.61%-79.75%

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