Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co., Ltd. (300428.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$117.07 - $253.38$237.46
Multi-Stage$38.64 - $42.28$40.42
Blended Fair Value$138.94
Current Price$23.90
Upside481.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.19%49.61%0.540.500.490.380.340.350.300.030.120.00
YoY Growth--8.60%0.72%28.52%12.73%-2.04%16.56%877.21%-75.10%3,418.76%-63.73%
Dividend Yield--2.96%2.70%1.84%1.70%2.58%2.64%2.32%0.20%0.45%0.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)839.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)437.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)401.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)167.84104.9062.94
Cash Retained (M)401.95401.95401.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-167.84-104.90-62.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)234.11297.05339.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)658.67658.67658.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.450.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.660.660.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.450.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.021.111.18
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$117.07$237.46$253.38
Upside / Downside389.85%893.54%960.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)839.20893.75951.841,013.711,079.601,149.771,184.27
Payout Ratio52.10%59.68%67.26%74.84%82.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)437.25533.41640.22758.67889.811,034.801,095.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)496.53501.24505.94
Year 2 PV (M)554.76565.32575.99
Year 3 PV (M)611.94629.51647.41
Year 4 PV (M)668.10693.79720.22
Year 5 PV (M)723.24758.17794.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,396.7723,478.5524,601.72
Equity Value (M)25,451.3526,626.5827,845.73
Shares Outstanding (M)658.67658.67658.67
Fair Value$38.64$40.42$42.28
Upside / Downside61.68%69.14%76.89%

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