Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Jiangsu LiXing General Steel Ball Co.,Ltd. (300421.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.69 - $8.03$5.29
Multi-Stage$2.86 - $3.12$2.99
Blended Fair Value$4.14
Current Price$19.03
Upside-78.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.95%10.62%0.140.350.140.100.090.190.280.200.140.21
YoY Growth---60.74%143.38%46.12%9.17%-51.74%-32.57%41.97%42.63%-33.32%309.39%
Dividend Yield--0.76%3.82%1.46%1.05%0.97%3.94%3.37%2.45%1.01%1.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)56.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.237.024.21
Cash Retained (M)18.8718.8718.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.23-7.02-4.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.6411.8514.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)293.96293.96293.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate9.81%9.81%9.81%
Growth Rate5.45%6.45%7.45%
Fair Value$3.69$5.29$8.03
Upside / Downside-80.60%-72.22%-57.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)56.1659.7863.6467.7472.1176.7679.06
Payout Ratio66.39%71.11%75.84%80.56%85.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.2942.5148.2654.5761.4969.0873.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.81%9.81%9.81%
Growth Rate5.45%6.45%7.45%
Year 1 PV (M)38.3538.7139.08
Year 2 PV (M)39.2740.0240.77
Year 3 PV (M)40.0641.2142.38
Year 4 PV (M)40.7242.2943.90
Year 5 PV (M)41.2743.2645.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)641.09672.07704.24
Equity Value (M)840.76877.56915.70
Shares Outstanding (M)293.96293.96293.96
Fair Value$2.86$2.99$3.12
Upside / Downside-84.97%-84.31%-83.63%

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