Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

PhiChem Corporation (300398.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.32 - $59.90$28.53
Multi-Stage$10.97 - $12.00$11.48
Blended Fair Value$20.00
Current Price$26.39
Upside-24.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.18%29.28%0.170.080.070.060.120.080.040.020.040.03
YoY Growth--115.39%14.17%9.96%-46.91%47.45%100.00%105.16%-50.00%30.00%131.06%
Dividend Yield--0.97%0.64%0.33%0.21%0.78%0.42%0.25%0.10%0.18%0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)331.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)43.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)288.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.3241.4524.87
Cash Retained (M)288.14288.14288.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.32-41.45-24.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)221.82246.69263.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)532.68532.68532.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.460.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.460.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.540.58
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.32$28.53$59.90
Upside / Downside-34.37%8.10%126.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)331.61353.16376.12400.56426.60454.33467.96
Payout Ratio13.11%28.49%43.87%59.24%74.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)43.47100.60164.98237.31318.34408.90432.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)91.8292.6993.57
Year 2 PV (M)137.44140.06142.70
Year 3 PV (M)180.44185.62190.90
Year 4 PV (M)220.92229.42238.16
Year 5 PV (M)259.01271.52284.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,955.095,194.425,442.92
Equity Value (M)5,844.736,113.746,392.75
Shares Outstanding (M)532.68532.68532.68
Fair Value$10.97$11.48$12.00
Upside / Downside-58.42%-56.51%-54.52%

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