Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co., Ltd. (300395.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.94 - $35.07$22.92
Multi-Stage$11.48 - $12.55$12.00
Blended Fair Value$17.46
Current Price$75.70
Upside-76.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.94%25.95%0.240.200.150.120.120.120.090.100.060.03
YoY Growth--18.55%31.23%28.25%0.13%0.41%33.18%-7.50%50.21%101.73%34.17%
Dividend Yield--0.54%0.68%0.35%0.32%0.48%0.86%0.67%0.98%0.62%0.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)413.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)72.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)340.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)82.6651.6631.00
Cash Retained (M)340.70340.70340.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-82.66-51.66-31.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)258.04289.04309.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)508.15508.15508.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.570.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.570.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate9.81%9.81%9.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.94$22.92$35.07
Upside / Downside-78.94%-69.72%-53.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)413.29440.16468.77499.24531.69566.25583.24
Payout Ratio17.56%32.05%46.54%61.03%75.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)72.59141.08218.16304.66401.49509.62539.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.81%9.81%9.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)127.27128.48129.68
Year 2 PV (M)177.55180.93184.35
Year 3 PV (M)223.69230.11236.66
Year 4 PV (M)265.94276.17286.69
Year 5 PV (M)304.53319.24334.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,736.584,965.365,202.89
Equity Value (M)5,835.566,100.286,374.77
Shares Outstanding (M)508.15508.15508.15
Fair Value$11.48$12.00$12.55
Upside / Downside-84.83%-84.14%-83.43%

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