Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co., Ltd. (300394.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$51.58 - $109.49$73.25
Multi-Stage$38.27 - $41.77$39.99
Blended Fair Value$56.62
Current Price$167.80
Upside-66.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS56.56%44.87%1.010.300.240.200.120.110.090.090.060.06
YoY Growth--241.28%25.67%20.66%63.61%11.11%20.40%0.00%42.86%12.00%124.62%
Dividend Yield--1.67%0.36%0.89%1.38%1.02%0.97%0.94%1.61%0.75%0.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,832.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)554.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,277.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)366.49229.05137.43
Cash Retained (M)1,277.891,277.891,277.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-366.49-229.05-137.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)911.401,048.841,140.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)667.13667.13667.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.371.571.71
LTM Dividend per Share0.830.830.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.371.571.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.202.402.54
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$51.58$73.25$109.49
Upside / Downside-69.26%-56.35%-34.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,832.431,951.542,078.392,213.492,357.362,510.592,585.91
Payout Ratio30.26%42.21%54.16%66.11%78.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)554.54823.751,125.611,463.231,839.982,259.532,391.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)741.87748.90755.93
Year 2 PV (M)912.96930.35947.90
Year 3 PV (M)1,068.831,099.511,130.77
Year 4 PV (M)1,210.431,256.981,304.86
Year 5 PV (M)1,338.681,403.341,470.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,260.7821,239.3922,255.45
Equity Value (M)25,533.5526,678.4627,865.38
Shares Outstanding (M)667.13667.13667.13
Fair Value$38.27$39.99$41.77
Upside / Downside-77.19%-76.17%-75.11%

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