Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangyin Haida Rubber And Plastic Co., Ltd. (300320.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.98 - $20.28$12.04
Multi-Stage$5.47 - $5.98$5.72
Blended Fair Value$8.88
Current Price$10.11
Upside-12.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.01%8.88%0.060.040.050.060.080.080.040.120.030.03
YoY Growth--60.22%-14.43%-18.90%-32.10%-2.86%134.75%-68.86%345.96%-5.98%4.17%
Dividend Yield--0.56%0.57%0.51%0.42%1.58%1.56%0.60%1.58%0.28%0.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)211.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)180.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.3726.4815.89
Cash Retained (M)180.30180.30180.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.37-26.48-15.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)137.93153.82164.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)601.18601.18601.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.260.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.260.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.98$12.04$20.28
Upside / Downside-21.09%19.07%100.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)211.84225.61240.27255.89272.52290.24298.94
Payout Ratio14.89%29.91%44.93%59.95%74.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.5467.48107.96153.42204.33261.21276.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)61.2061.7862.36
Year 2 PV (M)88.8090.4992.20
Year 3 PV (M)114.44117.73121.08
Year 4 PV (M)138.23143.55149.02
Year 5 PV (M)160.27168.01176.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,724.302,855.882,992.50
Equity Value (M)3,287.243,437.433,593.19
Shares Outstanding (M)601.18601.18601.18
Fair Value$5.47$5.72$5.98
Upside / Downside-45.92%-43.44%-40.88%

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