Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang Huace Film & TV Co., Ltd. (300133.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.14 - $1.71$1.41
Multi-Stage$2.20 - $2.41$2.30
Blended Fair Value$1.86
Current Price$9.29
Upside-80.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.91%8.87%0.060.030.030.030.040.010.090.090.060.04
YoY Growth--67.11%19.81%12.23%-33.37%177.05%-85.25%5.81%54.49%38.66%68.67%
Dividend Yield--0.74%0.36%0.36%0.50%0.63%0.21%1.12%0.73%0.51%0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)251.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)88.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)163.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.3931.4918.90
Cash Retained (M)163.29163.29163.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.39-31.49-18.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)112.90131.80144.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,864.081,864.081,864.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate-1.88%-0.88%0.12%
Fair Value$1.14$1.41$1.71
Upside / Downside-87.72%-84.80%-81.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)251.95249.73247.53245.35243.19241.05248.28
Payout Ratio35.19%46.15%57.11%68.08%79.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)88.66115.25141.37167.02192.21216.94229.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate-1.88%-0.88%0.12%
Year 1 PV (M)106.21107.29108.37
Year 2 PV (M)120.05122.51125.00
Year 3 PV (M)130.71134.74138.86
Year 4 PV (M)138.61144.35150.27
Year 5 PV (M)144.17151.67159.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,452.343,631.883,818.83
Equity Value (M)4,092.094,292.454,500.80
Shares Outstanding (M)1,864.081,864.081,864.08
Fair Value$2.20$2.30$2.41
Upside / Downside-76.37%-75.21%-74.01%

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