Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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XGD Inc. (300130.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Business Equipment & SuppliesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$103.34 - $121.75$114.10
Multi-Stage$71.45 - $78.38$74.85
Blended Fair Value$94.48
Current Price$27.64
Upside241.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS50.43%45.57%0.870.210.030.240.240.110.460.090.060.01
YoY Growth--310.18%693.63%-89.00%-0.09%115.41%-75.47%437.18%45.66%477.73%-50.00%
Dividend Yield--4.32%0.96%0.15%1.55%2.38%0.83%2.52%0.54%0.45%0.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)344.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)226.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)117.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.9043.0625.84
Cash Retained (M)117.67117.67117.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.90-43.06-25.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)48.7774.6091.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)562.72562.72562.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.130.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.130.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate2.10%2.10%2.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$103.34$114.10$121.75
Upside / Downside273.88%312.81%340.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)344.50366.89390.74416.14443.19472.00486.15
Payout Ratio65.84%70.68%75.51%80.34%85.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)226.83259.30295.03334.32377.46424.80449.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.10%2.10%2.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)251.59253.98256.36
Year 2 PV (M)277.75283.05288.39
Year 3 PV (M)305.38314.15323.08
Year 4 PV (M)334.54347.40360.64
Year 5 PV (M)365.30382.95401.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)38,671.2040,539.0442,478.36
Equity Value (M)40,205.7742,120.5644,108.09
Shares Outstanding (M)562.72562.72562.72
Fair Value$71.45$74.85$78.38
Upside / Downside158.50%170.81%183.59%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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