Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Ningbo Shuanglin Auto Parts Co.,Ltd. (300100.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.51 - $121.46$59.54
Multi-Stage$23.45 - $25.65$24.53
Blended Fair Value$42.04
Current Price$44.47
Upside-5.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS44.49%8.44%0.190.000.710.200.220.030.150.020.100.13
YoY Growth--4,585.33%-99.42%255.86%-10.38%631.57%-80.00%655.30%-79.89%-22.67%52.05%
Dividend Yield--0.44%0.06%12.48%3.58%3.64%0.87%1.95%0.14%0.54%0.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)532.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)97.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)435.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)106.5666.6039.96
Cash Retained (M)435.11435.11435.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-106.56-66.60-39.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)328.55368.51395.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)397.69397.69397.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.830.930.99
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.830.930.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.071.171.24
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$36.51$59.54$121.46
Upside / Downside-17.89%33.89%173.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)532.81567.44604.33643.61685.44730.00751.90
Payout Ratio18.34%32.67%47.00%61.33%75.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)97.70185.38284.05394.76518.66657.00695.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)169.10170.71172.31
Year 2 PV (M)236.35240.86245.40
Year 3 PV (M)299.63308.23317.00
Year 4 PV (M)359.11372.92387.12
Year 5 PV (M)414.95434.99455.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,848.518,227.598,621.19
Equity Value (M)9,327.659,755.2910,198.81
Shares Outstanding (M)397.69397.69397.69
Fair Value$23.45$24.53$25.65
Upside / Downside-47.26%-44.84%-42.33%

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