Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Sumavision Technologies Co.,Ltd. (300079.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.07 - $0.09$0.08
Multi-Stage$0.13 - $0.15$0.14
Blended Fair Value$0.11
Current Price$5.87
Upside-98.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.91%-8.66%0.010.010.010.000.010.010.010.030.020.01
YoY Growth--0.11%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-13.78%-12.86%-57.85%50.73%127.50%-62.79%
Dividend Yield--0.19%0.20%0.15%0.00%0.26%0.24%0.16%0.82%0.31%0.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)26.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)12.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.343.342.00
Cash Retained (M)12.4212.4212.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.34-3.34-2.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.079.0810.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,431.031,431.031,431.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.010.020.02
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate-10.03%-9.03%-8.03%
Fair Value$0.07$0.08$0.09
Upside / Downside-98.86%-98.67%-98.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)26.7124.3022.1020.1118.2916.6417.14
Payout Ratio53.51%60.81%68.11%75.40%82.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.2914.7715.0515.1615.1314.9815.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate-10.03%-9.03%-8.03%
Year 1 PV (M)13.2813.4313.58
Year 2 PV (M)12.1712.4412.72
Year 3 PV (M)11.0311.4011.78
Year 4 PV (M)9.8910.3410.80
Year 5 PV (M)8.819.319.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)133.52141.10149.03
Equity Value (M)188.70198.02207.74
Shares Outstanding (M)1,431.031,431.031,431.03
Fair Value$0.13$0.14$0.15
Upside / Downside-97.75%-97.64%-97.53%

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