Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hubei Dinglong CO.,Ltd. (300054.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.88 - $52.80$28.23
Multi-Stage$11.67 - $12.77$12.21
Blended Fair Value$20.22
Current Price$36.29
Upside-44.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.95%13.79%0.090.070.020.030.020.020.010.060.030.03
YoY Growth--22.96%208.13%-20.15%44.51%-8.51%109.25%-82.61%120.16%-7.64%22.99%
Dividend Yield--0.30%0.32%0.09%0.14%0.12%0.20%0.10%0.56%0.23%0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)663.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)613.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)132.7682.9749.78
Cash Retained (M)613.20613.20613.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-132.76-82.97-49.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)480.44530.22563.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)941.43941.43941.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.560.60
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.560.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.620.65
WACC / Discount Rate8.83%8.83%8.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.88$28.23$52.80
Upside / Downside-50.72%-22.22%45.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)663.79706.94752.89801.83853.95909.45936.74
Payout Ratio7.62%24.10%40.57%57.05%73.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.59170.36305.47457.43627.86818.51866.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.83%8.83%8.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)155.07156.54158.01
Year 2 PV (M)253.10257.92262.79
Year 3 PV (M)345.00354.90364.99
Year 4 PV (M)431.04447.61464.66
Year 5 PV (M)511.49536.19561.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,291.069,739.8210,205.75
Equity Value (M)10,986.7511,492.9812,018.05
Shares Outstanding (M)941.43941.43941.43
Fair Value$11.67$12.21$12.77
Upside / Downside-67.84%-66.36%-64.82%

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