Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Hunan Zhongke Electric Co., Ltd. (300035.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$128.25 - $151.10$141.60
Multi-Stage$90.85 - $99.69$95.19
Blended Fair Value$118.40
Current Price$22.73
Upside420.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.77%15.38%0.240.300.310.150.080.060.020.040.070.03
YoY Growth---20.85%-2.08%109.65%94.95%35.23%269.72%-64.44%-39.57%102.29%-39.25%
Dividend Yield--1.48%3.24%1.82%0.46%0.70%0.88%0.25%0.68%0.92%0.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)521.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)228.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)292.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)104.2465.1539.09
Cash Retained (M)292.60292.60292.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-104.24-65.15-39.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)188.36227.45253.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)685.98685.98685.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.330.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.330.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.610.660.70
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$128.25$141.60$151.10
Upside / Downside464.24%522.99%564.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)521.20555.07591.15629.58670.50714.08735.51
Payout Ratio43.86%53.09%62.32%71.54%80.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)228.59294.67368.38450.42541.58642.68680.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)287.56290.28293.01
Year 2 PV (M)350.80357.49364.23
Year 3 PV (M)418.57430.59442.83
Year 4 PV (M)491.13510.01529.44
Year 5 PV (M)568.73596.20624.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)60,206.7263,114.7266,134.03
Equity Value (M)62,323.5165,299.3068,388.26
Shares Outstanding (M)685.98685.98685.98
Fair Value$90.85$95.19$99.69
Upside / Downside299.71%318.79%338.60%

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