Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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H.H.Galaxy Co., Ltd. (2949.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.74 - $46.39$38.12
Multi-Stage$62.75 - $68.98$65.80
Blended Fair Value$51.96
Current Price$67.85
Upside-23.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%1.910.720.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--166.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.73%0.83%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)91.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)48.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)42.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.2111.386.83
Cash Retained (M)42.6642.6642.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.21-11.38-6.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)24.4531.2835.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)25.3125.3125.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.971.241.42
LTM Dividend per Share1.911.911.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.971.241.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.883.153.33
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$30.74$38.12$46.39
Upside / Downside-54.69%-43.81%-31.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)91.0690.1589.2588.3687.4786.6089.20
Payout Ratio53.15%60.52%67.89%75.26%82.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)48.4054.5660.5966.5072.2877.9482.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)50.3950.9151.42
Year 2 PV (M)51.6952.7553.82
Year 3 PV (M)52.4054.0255.67
Year 4 PV (M)52.6054.7957.03
Year 5 PV (M)52.3955.1257.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,328.931,398.131,470.18
Equity Value (M)1,588.411,665.711,746.09
Shares Outstanding (M)25.3125.3125.31
Fair Value$62.75$65.80$68.98
Upside / Downside-7.52%-3.02%1.66%

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