Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yixin Group Limited (2858.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.73 - $48.42$45.37
Multi-Stage$6.96 - $7.62$7.29
Blended Fair Value$26.33
Current Price$2.13
Upside1,136.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.030.030.000.000.000.000.000.010.000.00
YoY Growth---7.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.14%5.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.28%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,647.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)721.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)925.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)329.44205.90123.54
Cash Retained (M)925.86925.86925.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-329.44-205.90-123.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)596.43719.97802.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,766.116,766.116,766.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18.73$45.37$48.42
Upside / Downside779.31%2,030.15%2,173.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,647.181,754.251,868.271,989.712,119.042,256.782,324.48
Payout Ratio43.79%53.03%62.27%71.52%80.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)721.32930.331,163.461,422.971,711.302,031.102,150.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)864.55872.75880.94
Year 2 PV (M)1,004.771,023.911,043.23
Year 3 PV (M)1,142.011,174.791,208.19
Year 4 PV (M)1,276.311,325.391,375.88
Year 5 PV (M)1,407.731,475.731,546.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)41,429.6143,430.6845,508.33
Equity Value (M)47,124.9949,303.2451,562.90
Shares Outstanding (M)6,766.116,766.116,766.11
Fair Value$6.96$7.29$7.62
Upside / Downside226.99%242.10%257.78%

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